Search results for "Natural interest rate"
showing 2 items of 2 documents
On the international co-movement of natural interest rates
2022
Using quarterly data for 10 OECD countries and the Euro area and a Kalman filtering technique, we investigate the international co-movement among natural interest rates. We show that the US is the main source of global spillovers and global/common factors appear to be key drivers of such co-movement. Indeed, global liquidity is a net transmitter of shocks, while quantitative easing (QE) and the US Dollar are net recipients of shocks. We also find that total spillovers among natural interest rates have been rising since the late nineties, spiking at around economic re-cessions, periods of US monetary policy tightening, the global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. From …
Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why "too" low (high) for "so" long?
2022
We study the behaviour of real interest rate gaps-i.e. periods of real interest rates above (below) the natural interest rate-and link their length with a set of key observable determinants. Using quarterly data for 13 OECD countries over (close to) the last 60 years, we find that global risk-taking, CPI inflation, (un)conventional monetary policy, and income redistribution crucially shape the duration of both events. However, while labour-related supply-side factors appear to affect the length of positive interest rate gaps, the adoption of an inflation targeting regime and the current account balance seem to explain the duration of negative interest rate gaps. Our results suggest that the…